On a risk analysis of storm surges.

Reprinted from : Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics, vol. 44, no. 1-3 Oct., 1992, pp.2523-2534

Journal Article

Three major cities in Japan, Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya, have developed along shallow bays which open to the Pacific Ocean so that these cities have suffered once in a while from storm surges caused by strong typhoons even though events are scarce. One of the prediction methods for storm surges is to use an empirical relation of three parameters, the central pressure, expected maximum wind speed and associated wind direction of a typhoon. The probability distribution of the maximum wind speed at a specific site may be estimated by an indirect method based on the statistical properties of a typhoon. Then the probability distribution of annual maximum departure of the tide due to a typhoon can be obtained by the same method. Estimated probabilities of annual maximum departure of the tide at Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya harbours are shown on extremal probability papers with observed ones. It may be reasonable to say that the storm surge of 1959 at Nagoya harbour, the most disastrous storm surge in Japan, was an extraordinary event.