Field observations in Memphis during the New Madrid earthquake "projection" of 1990 : how pseudoscience affected a region.

"April 1991."

Bibliography: p. 37-38

On November 29, 1989, the Arkansas Democrat published an article entitled "New Madrid tremors due, forecast says", stating that Iben Browning, described as a climatologist, and scientist, was "projecting" a 50% probability that an earthquake would occur on or around December 3, 1990, within the New Madrid Seismic Zone. Between November 29, 1989 and December 3, 1990, more than 300 articles about the forecast appeared in more than 45 national and local publications. As public concern arose over the possiblity of an earthquake, demands were made on those who could provide general information about earthquakes or preparation/mitigation advice. The bulk of this paper consists of observations made in Memphis, Tennessee, and its environs from December 1 to December 4, 1990. Information was obtained by monitoring radio and television broadcasts, attending press conferences, conversing with personnel of response organisations, and "impromtu" interviews with the members of the public. The local media coverage was extensive and ranged from inflammatory to calm and rational, with occasional humour. Public response appeared calm and rational, if sometimes amused or occasionally bewildered, but there was no evidence of panic or expressions of strong fear. There was no consensus among or between response personnel, media representatives, or elected officials regarding whether Browning had harmed or aided earthquake recognition/preparation efforts in the region.