A procedure for estimating loss of life caused by dam failure.

Bibliography: p.42-43

Cover title

Spiral bound

Risk assessments and other dam safety studies often require that an estimate be made of the number of fatalities that would result from dam failure. To assist in this effort, an extensive evaluation of dam failures and the factors that contributed to loss of life was conducted. Every U.S. dam failure that resulted in more than 50 fatalities and every dam failure that occurred after 1960 resulting in any fatalities was investigated with regard to warning, population at risk (PAR) and number of fatalities. These dam failure data are used to provide a historical perspective of the risk associated with the U.S. dam inventory. Loss of life resulting from dam failure is highly influenced by three factors: 1) the number of people occupying the dam failure flood plain; 2) the amount of warning that is provided to the people exposed to dangerous flooding; and, 3) the severity of the flooding. The procedure for estimating loss of life due to dam failure relies heavily on data obtained from U.S. dam failures. The procedure is composed of 7 steps: 1) determine dam failure scenarios to evaluate; 2) determine time categories for which loss of life estimates are needed; 3) determine when dam failure warnings would be initiated; 4) determine area flooded for each dam failure scenario; 5) estimate the number of people at risk for each dam failure scenario and time category; 6) apply empirically-based equations or methods for estimating the number of fatalities; and, 7) evaluate uncertainty