Improving El Nino forecasting : the potential economic benefits.

Includes bibliographical references

Describes a NOAA program to quantify the economic benefits of improved forecasts of El Nino climate events. Unlike hurricanes and tornadoes, the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climatic cycle that has longer-term implications on weather patterns throughout the world. Its 12- to 18-month cycled between warm and cold states can alter temperatures and precipitation to such an extent that they significantly disrupt agriculture, commercial fishing, tourism, and many other businesses and industries. Over the last decade, NOAA has greatly improved forecasting for this phenomenon - 70% to 80% accurate a year prior to occurrence. This publication offers varying perspectives on this technological advance and includes papers that examine the economic value of an improved ENSO forecast, the economic costs of El Nino and La Nina for agriculture, their effects on fuel oil costs, and the value of improved forecasting for agricultural commodities markets and Pacific Northwest fisheries. It also contains a cost/benefit analysis of forecasting systems