Repeat response to hurricane evacuation orders.

Hurricane Hugo (1989) remains a vivid memory in the minds of residents of South Carolina. When a hurricane threatens the East Coast of the U.S., comparisons with Hugo are inevitable. Not mentioned by name are the hurricanes that appeared to threaten the seaboard, perhaps prompting protective action, but making landfall elsewhere. In the 1996 hurricane season, two of these hurricane events, Bertha and Fran, prompted evacuation orders to be issued along the North and South Carolina coasts. In both instances, the edge of the hurricane nicked the northern coast of South Carolina, each making landfall just over the border in North Carolina. These two events offer a unique opportunity to study the impact of repeated "false alarms", evacuations ordered based on expectations of hurricane landfall that ultimately proved to be wrong. The influence and credibility of forecasters and local officials, important factors in the evacuation response, could be affected by this recent history of repeated "misses", "near misses", and "hits". The impact of false alarms on future evacuations is a widespread source of speculation and concern in the emergency management community, but very little research has directly studied the implications of these unnecessary evacuations