Living with the unexpected : linking disaster recovery to sustainable development in Montserrat / Anja Possekel ; [translator, Ines Adams].

Originally presented as author's thesis (doctoral)--University of Hamburg, 1998.

Includes bibliographical references and index.

1. Introduction -- 2. Theoretical reflections -- 3. Strategic planning as methodical consequence -- 4. Montserrat-a complex system -- 5. Structuring the future and hazard management-scenarios as a participative planning method for reconstruction -- 6. Living on the edge of a volcano-scenarios for Montserrat -- 7. Living with the unexpected-perspectives for a constructive dealing with complexity and uncertainity.

This study deals with complexity and uncertainty, thereby focusing on appropriate methods which enable vulnerable communities to cope effectively with natural hazards and distasters. The central goal of the study is an applicable combination of hazard management and development planning. Therefore, the reconstruction process following a disaster is understood as an opportunity for structural changes and self-organisation processes that can foster sustainable development. In this context the potential of scenario planning as an evolutionary and participatory learning approach is addressed. The empirical research concentrates on the time before and during the volcanic crisis on the Caribbean island Montserrat. Particular methods used are a systematic analysis of the case study, more than 200 interviews with stakeholders and citizens -- concentrating on resource and hazard perception -- as well as the organisation and execution of various scenario workshops.