Should we try to predict the next great U.S. earthquake?.
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TextLanguage: ENG Publication details: 1990Description: 16 pSubject: Short term earthquake prediction has become technically possible. However, the desirability of such predictions depends both on the probability of successfully predicting an event and on the odds of false predictions. This paper investigates the economic feasibility of earthquake prediction as a function of program performance for the Los Angeses area. Based on the now increasing probability of a great earthquake in the region, the paper concludes that, given current best estimates of program performance, such predictions may well provide expected benefits which exceed expected costs.
| Item type | Current library | Collection | Call number | Status | Date due | Barcode | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Books
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Australian Emergency Management Library | BOOK | 363.3495 SHO (Browse shelf(Opens below)) | Available | 005720611 |
Reprinted from Journal of Environmental Economics and Management; vol. 18; p. 247-262
Short term earthquake prediction has become technically possible. However, the desirability of such predictions depends both on the probability of successfully predicting an event and on the odds of false predictions. This paper investigates the economic feasibility of earthquake prediction as a function of program performance for the Los Angeses area. Based on the now increasing probability of a great earthquake in the region, the paper concludes that, given current best estimates of program performance, such predictions may well provide expected benefits which exceed expected costs.
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