Warning systems in risk management.
Material type:
TextLanguage: ENG Publication details: 1986Description: 12p., 5 figs, 1 tab, 27 refsSubject: Proposes a method of stochastic analysis of costs and benefits of a warning system as a function: (1) of the quality of the signals issued, and (2) of the response of the people to whom warnings are directed. These results allow probabilistic assessment of a warning system, including the long-term effects of true alerts, missed predictions, and false alerts. For some systems, the sensitivity is a decision variable: it determines the rate of false alerts and the lead time in case of true alerts. Using this model, one can find the optimum sensitivity accounting not only for the classical costs of false alerts may decrease the future rates of response to warnings and therefore the system's overall effectiveness.
| Item type | Current library | Collection | Call number | Status | Date due | Barcode | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Books
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Australian Emergency Management Library | BOOK | 302.12 PAT (Browse shelf(Opens below)) | Available | 005266350 |
Reprinted from Risk Analysis, Vol.6., No. 2., 1986, pp223-234
Reprint
Proposes a method of stochastic analysis of costs and benefits of a warning system as a function: (1) of the quality of the signals issued, and (2) of the response of the people to whom warnings are directed. These results allow probabilistic assessment of a warning system, including the long-term effects of true alerts, missed predictions, and false alerts. For some systems, the sensitivity is a decision variable: it determines the rate of false alerts and the lead time in case of true alerts. Using this model, one can find the optimum sensitivity accounting not only for the classical costs of false alerts may decrease the future rates of response to warnings and therefore the system's overall effectiveness.
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