The perception of earthquake prediction: a New Zealand case study.

Reprinted from Earthquake Prediction; Proceedings of the International Symposium on Earthquake Prediction; UNESCO, 1984; pp827-847

Based on historical records New Zealand can expect ten earthquakes of Richter magnitude 5 and one of Richter 6 per year, with one of Richter 8 every hundred years. Despite these figures it seems that most New Zealanders are not aware of, or concerned about, the earthquake hazard in the country. The earthquake at Inangahua in 1968 and its overall consequences have not had any significant effect on the New Zealand stance concerning the importance of earthquakes, or to the development of earthquake prediction. Earthquake predictive technology would benefit the nation, but it would not unduly affect the way institutions respond to such a prediction. Because of the significance that institutions have in the overall decision making process in NZ the response to a prediction may be the result of the type of institutions, and an analysis of institutional response will give researchers an indication of the overall NZ response to earthquake prediction