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Methods for the elicitation and use of expert opinion in risk assessment. Phase 1 - a critical evaluation and directions for future research.

By: Contributor(s): Material type: TextTextLanguage: ENG Publication details: AUG 1987Description: 87p., no refsReport number: FIN-D1710; National Government; NUREG/CR-4962; PLG-0533Subject: Case studiesSubject: ContainmentSubject: Human factorsSubject: Nuclear reactor safetySubject: Reactor system componentsSubject: Risk assessmentSubject: Seismic detectionSubject: The purpose of this work is to critically review and evaluate the elicitation and use of expert opinion in Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) in light of the available empirical and theoretical results on expert opinion use. PRA practice is presented by five case studies selected to represent a variety of aspects of the problem: 1) Assessments of component failure rates and maintenance data, 2) Recent assessments of seismic hazard rates, 3) Assessments of containment phenomenology, 4) Assessments of human error rates, 5) Accident precursor studies
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Technical report

Case studies

Containment

Human factors

Nuclear reactor safety

Reactor system components

Risk assessment

Seismic detection

The purpose of this work is to critically review and evaluate the elicitation and use of expert opinion in Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) in light of the available empirical and theoretical results on expert opinion use. PRA practice is presented by five case studies selected to represent a variety of aspects of the problem: 1) Assessments of component failure rates and maintenance data, 2) Recent assessments of seismic hazard rates, 3) Assessments of containment phenomenology, 4) Assessments of human error rates, 5) Accident precursor studies

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