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Optimum prediction of the movement of Tropical Cyclone Tracy (1974) by linear extrapolation.

By: Material type: TextTextLanguage: ENG Publication details: 1978Description: 3p., 2 refs, 2 figs, 1 tableReport number: Institutional/Corporate BodySubject(s):
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Reprinted from Monthly Weather Review; 1978; Vol 106; No 11; pp1619-1621

The detailed track based on continuous radar surveillance of Tropical Cyclone Tracy, which struck Darwin in northern Australia in December 1974, is presented. It is shown that optimum forecasts for the storm's movement using the technique of linear extrapolation could be derived from best-fit lines drawn through storm locations covering 5 h prior to forecast time

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