Overspecification of first day lows on Exprogs.
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TextLanguage: ENG Publication details: 05 JAN 1978Description: 7p., no refs, 1 fig., 3 tablesReport number: Operations-Development-Note-No-771; Institutional/Corporate BodySubject: 99 EXPROGS composed during the period 1/7/76 to 31/12/76 inclusive by the Extended Range Forecasting sub-section of NMAC (National Meteorological Analysis Centre) are being surveyed in an exercise aimed at identifying specific deficiencies in the product so that corrective action can be taken. A multiple purpose project is not contemplated and the individual objectives are being quite rigidly defined. In order to determine whether the correct degree of specificity is being attained in marking pressure centres the number of Highs and Lows on the 99 EXPROG charts were counted. The number of High and Low centres that actually eventuated were also counted by examination of the printed historic MSL pressure charts contained in the Daily Weather Map series presented in the Bureau's Monthly Weather Reviews. This particular chart series was chosen as the verification base because the scale of representation of the pressure systems is similar to the scale attempted in EXPROG forecasts. Survey figures are presented that show too many Lows appear on the first day of Extended Range predictions by NMAC. In other respects the figures do not surprise
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99 EXPROGS composed during the period 1/7/76 to 31/12/76 inclusive by the Extended Range Forecasting sub-section of NMAC (National Meteorological Analysis Centre) are being surveyed in an exercise aimed at identifying specific deficiencies in the product so that corrective action can be taken. A multiple purpose project is not contemplated and the individual objectives are being quite rigidly defined. In order to determine whether the correct degree of specificity is being attained in marking pressure centres the number of Highs and Lows on the 99 EXPROG charts were counted. The number of High and Low centres that actually eventuated were also counted by examination of the printed historic MSL pressure charts contained in the Daily Weather Map series presented in the Bureau's Monthly Weather Reviews. This particular chart series was chosen as the verification base because the scale of representation of the pressure systems is similar to the scale attempted in EXPROG forecasts. Survey figures are presented that show too many Lows appear on the first day of Extended Range predictions by NMAC. In other respects the figures do not surprise
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