Should we try to predict the next great U.S. earthquake?.

By:

Schulze, William D [et al.]

Material type: Text

TextLanguage: ENG Publication details: 1990Description: 16 pSubject: Short term earthquake prediction has become technically possible. However, the desirability of such predictions depends both on the probability of successfully predicting an event and on the odds of false predictions. This paper investigates the economic feasibility of earthquake prediction as a function of program performance for the Los Angeses area. Based on the now increasing probability of a great earthquake in the region, the paper concludes that, given current best estimates of program performance, such predictions may well provide expected benefits which exceed expected costs.

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Item type	Current library	Collection	Call number	Status	Date due	Barcode
Books	Australian Emergency Management Library	BOOK	363.3495 SHO (Browse shelf(Opens below))	Available		005720611

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Previous	363.3495 SEC Second National Workshop on Modelling Earthquake Casualties for Planning and Response : summary of proceedings, February 5-7, 1996.	363.3495 SEI Seismic considerations for communities at risk.	363.3495 SEI Seismic building codes.	363.3495 SHO Should we try to predict the next great U.S. earthquake?.	363.3495 SOC The social and economic aspects of earthquakes : Proceedings of the Third International Conference : The Social and Economic Aspects of Earthquakes and Planning to Mitigate their Impacts.	363.3495 SOC Social response to the first "A" alert of the Parkfield earthquake prediction experiment.	363.3495 SOC Social and economic aspects of earthquake, proceedings of the third international conference, Bled, Yugoslavia (June 29 - July 2 1981).	Next

Reprinted from Journal of Environmental Economics and Management; vol. 18; p. 247-262

Short term earthquake prediction has become technically possible. However, the desirability of such predictions depends both on the probability of successfully predicting an event and on the odds of false predictions. This paper investigates the economic feasibility of earthquake prediction as a function of program performance for the Los Angeses area. Based on the now increasing probability of a great earthquake in the region, the paper concludes that, given current best estimates of program performance, such predictions may well provide expected benefits which exceed expected costs.

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