Warning systems in risk management.

By:

Pate-Cornell, M. Elizabeth

Material type: Text

TextLanguage: ENG Publication details: 1986Description: 12p., 5 figs, 1 tab, 27 refsSubject: Proposes a method of stochastic analysis of costs and benefits of a warning system as a function: (1) of the quality of the signals issued, and (2) of the response of the people to whom warnings are directed. These results allow probabilistic assessment of a warning system, including the long-term effects of true alerts, missed predictions, and false alerts. For some systems, the sensitivity is a decision variable: it determines the rate of false alerts and the lead time in case of true alerts. Using this model, one can find the optimum sensitivity accounting not only for the classical costs of false alerts may decrease the future rates of response to warnings and therefore the system's overall effectiveness.

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Item type	Current library	Collection	Call number	Status	Date due	Barcode
Books	Australian Emergency Management Library	BOOK	302.12 PAT (Browse shelf(Opens below))	Available		005266350

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Reprinted from Risk Analysis, Vol.6., No. 2., 1986, pp223-234

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Proposes a method of stochastic analysis of costs and benefits of a warning system as a function: (1) of the quality of the signals issued, and (2) of the response of the people to whom warnings are directed. These results allow probabilistic assessment of a warning system, including the long-term effects of true alerts, missed predictions, and false alerts. For some systems, the sensitivity is a decision variable: it determines the rate of false alerts and the lead time in case of true alerts. Using this model, one can find the optimum sensitivity accounting not only for the classical costs of false alerts may decrease the future rates of response to warnings and therefore the system's overall effectiveness.

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